Disintermediation

Sometimes I think I should write a book about failing companies.  Having been at Tower Records and Borders, I feel like I've seen enough to fill dozens of business school case studies.  However, I'm not really sure I'm the one to spin it into something interesting or marketable.  I'm also a bit of a fatalist, probably to a fault - something that is not particularly helpful at times.  I actually think Borders' fate was probably sealed almost a decade ago.  The same people hailed as geniuses at Tower Records in the 80's and early 90's were vilified as failing to respond to a changing market.  Were these people suddenly completely incompetent?

When viewed from that perspective, I find myself thinking that much of success or failure is based on greater forces and circumstances than can be manipulated by a few good managers or executives.  If Borders' was already doomed in 2001 because of its real estate strategy, product strategy, lack of operational/systems investment during its heyday, and failure to credibly engage in internet retailing, then everything afterward was just an elaborate stage play leading to a foregone conclusion: executives promising results they couldn't deliver, finger-pointing, ass-covering, short-term decisions, reorganization after reorganization, delusional group-think, naked emperors.  By and large, all of these depressing and unpleasant behaviors are more a result of the declining results, not a cause of them.  When times are good, the aggressive forecast gets hit sometimes and the executive gets the credit.  Mistakes are covered by the rising tide.  Almost every decision seems like a good one.

To state the obvious: it is better to be at a growing company than a shrinking company, and a lot (not all) of what determines whether a company is succeeding is outside its control.